CIFR and Macquarie University were delighted to host a lunchtime seminar on 19 November 2015, on the Outlook for Global Credit Markets – Is it a Bubble?
|L to R: Professor David R Gallagher, CIFR, Dr Egon Kalotay, Macquarie University and Professor Edward I Altman, NYU Stern School of Business
The keynote was Professor Edward I Altman, Max L Heine Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business, New York University.
Professor Altman is an international expert on corporate bankruptcy, high yield bonds, distressed debt and credit risk analysis.
His interesting and insightful address covered three key questions of vital interest to those who are involved both directly and indirectly in the bond markets:
Are we in the midst of an inflating credit bubble?
If so, when is it likely the bubble will burst?
Contrarily, are we experiencing an extended period of opportunistic debt financing?
Professor Altman pointed out that that the benign phase of the credit cycle, defined as an absence of excessive defaults, is moving towards an end. Applying a baseball analogy, the game is presently tied at the bottom of 8th inning. Whatever happens in the 9th inning will determine whether the game goes to extra time. In the case of the credit market, the actions of the US Federal Reserve with regard to monetary policy will determine whether or not the outcome of the 9th inning is a continuation of the benign phase in the credit cycle.
Please find a link to the full presentation summary and slides below.